Samuel Cohn: Global Social Trends

Note: This essay is not about any one person or any specific people. In particular, this is NOT an essay about Matthew Livelsberger who recently committed suicide in a Tesla in front of the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas.

It is an essay about general patterns in the population. Statistical studies of large numbers of people find regular patterns that apply to a significant percentage of the people in that study.

Every suffering human being is unique. Every suffering human being has their own story. Every suffering human being has their own traumas and their own fears.

Assessing whether the conclusions of an aggregate study fit any one specific person requires a deep knowledge of the life of the particular person involved.

* * *

There is a statistical tendency for suicides to go down during major political events and then to go up when the political event is over. Wars, falls of governments and national elections all as major political events.

This finding was first discovered by Emile Durkheim, one of the greatest sociologists of the nineteenth century. His monograph Suicide, first published in 1897, noted the decline of suicides in both France and Germany during the Franco-Prussian War. Suicides also declined in France during the Boulanger Crisis, an attempted military coup in France in 1890 that almost succeeded. Elections in several European settings also produced declines in the suicide rate.

This finding has been replicated in the United States. I provide a list of such studies below. The studies in the bibliography are straightforward comparisons between the suicide rates of election months and the suicide rates of the months afterwards. Some also compare the suicide rates of election months with the same months in non-election years. These simple common-sense comparisons show lower suicide rates while national elections are in progress. There exists a set of fancier studies that claim that no election suicide relationship exists. I don’t give a lot of credibility to the fancier studies. One approach is to flood the equations with relatively meaningless series of variables for individual years and individual months. In small datasets, flooding the equation with too many variables will make all the relationships look bad – including the valid ones. (Statisticians refer to this problem as data attrition). Another questionable strategy for drowning the election effect is to add variables such as the unemployment rate to the equation which themselves have ambiguous relationships to suicide. In general, Durkheim’s arguments have been supported. Suicide rates go down during elections and go up afterwards.

Why do suicide rates go down during elections and go up afterwards?

Three reasons – one trivial and two profound.

The trivial reason: elections – and political crises in general – are interesting. Everyone wants to know how they are going to come out. People who would be mooning and moping and obsessing about their problems is pulled out of their self-absorption by the really interesting events going on around them. Who is going to win? Trump or Kamala? How did Kamala do in the Big Debate? Donald Trump just said WHAT on national television? The constant spectacle of fast breaking events keeps everyone entertained. You would get a similar effect from a big event in the sports world. One’s home team being in a pennant race and then going into the playoffs will keep a person watching TV and getting the sports stories from the Internet.

The first profound reason is that during the election, people have a reason to live. There is a fight on between good and evil – and one’s personal efforts are required to defeat evil. This obviously is more effective for people who are active and involved in the campaign. Some very depressed people will not be engaged by the election at all. However, even people who are only marginally involved in politics may know that it is important to at least vote to keep the bad guy or the bad lady out of power. They need to stay alive at least until the first Tuesday of November – or at least until they cast their absentee ballot. People more involved in the campaign may actually have responsibilities. These do not necessarily mean formal work for one of the parties, knocking on doors or hosting fundraisers – although knocking on doors or hosting fundraisers will prevent people from obsessing in their room. Often political campaigns mean it is important to argue with people and get the people with wrong-headed ideas to change their mind. Democrats arm twist wavering Republicans. Republicans arm twist wavering Democrats. People do this on their own initiative, whether or not they have an official role at campaign headquarters.

The second profound reason that suicides go down during electoral campaigns is that the coalescence of political camps pulls people out of isolation and gets them interacting with other people on their team. They now have a moral obligation to members of that team to see that the evil candidate does not win. When political organizers “get out the vote”, they are contacting everyone they know who they think would be potential allies. This not only means contacting popular people who would be active in social life anyway; it involves contacting loners who might be viewed as being a reliable vote. Elections mean an intensification of social interaction as the partisans of both sides build up their teams. Such political organizing breaks isolates out of their social cells. It furthermore encourages the isolates to take action out in the world. Lonely people who think they might not have much to offer are told that their vote and their help really matters. More so, they are told that they are reasonable good people, who are a contrast with the unreasonable bad people. As good people, they are told that their efforts to insure that the right candidate wins would be a meaningful and important contribution that would be appreciated by other people of decent moral standards and good judgment.

Lonely suicidal people might think that their life does not matter and they have nothing to contribute to the world. Suddenly, actual human beings are telling them that they are important, that they are reasonable, that they are intellectually superior to many of the people around then and they are morally superior to many of the other people around them. They are being told they have a mission that is important. They are being told they need to do what they can to make sure that justice triumphs now.

* * *

After the election, all this attention goes away. The deed is done. Either the right candidate won or the wrong candidate won. There is no more suspense. There are no exciting developments in the nightly news. There is nothing more to watch because we know what happened. There are no jobs that need to be done. Everything is being taken care of. Plus no one is coming to the door or calling people up any more. If a depressed person wanted to lie in bed all day, not showering, not eating and playing with dangerous toys, there is no one else in the world who knows this is going on, and no one else to serve as a circuit breaker – interrupting self-absorbed trains of thought and turning the discussion to outside issues.

The new isolation affects partisans of the winning and losing sides alike. To be sure, members of the losing side may be particularly discouraged. If the losers were feeling helpless before the election, they surely must be feeling more discouraged now. But the emptiness of life after the election also affects people on the winning side as well. The triumphant celebrations on Election Night turn into mornings-after where the same old life continues with the same old dreariness.

Should we intentionally create political crises to reduce the suicide rate? This is not exactly a realistic or feasible solution. But Durkheim does argue that having a moral purpose in life prevents suicide. Mothers with young children to care for have lower suicide rates than do empty-nesters. Having a strong religion reduces suicide. Being emmeshed in a circle of friends with obligations to all of them reduces suicide. Life seems purposeless when life IS purposeless. Leisure, freedom and just hanging out do not give people a reason to live.

Having a moral cause to advance is a great defense against suicide. Finding other people to join your cause and work with you as a team protects them against suicide. There are few things more impressive and wonderful than an army of people coming together to make a common cause.

The best campaigns for human improvement do not end after the First Tuesday of November.atterns in the population. Statistical studies of large numbers of people find regular patterns that apply to a significant percentage of the people in that study.

Every suffering human being is unique. Every suffering human being has their own story. Every suffering human being has their own traumas and their own fears.

Assessing whether the conclusions of an aggregate study fit any one specific person requires a deep knowledge of the life of the particular person involved.

*  *  *

There is a statistical tendency for suicides to go down during major political events and then to go up when the political event is over. Wars, falls of governments and national elections all as major political events.

This finding was first discovered by Emile Durkheim, one of the greatest sociologists of the nineteenth century. His monograph Suicide, first published in 1897, noted the decline of suicides in both France and Germany during the Franco Prussian War. Suicides also declined in France during the Boulanger Crisis, an attempted military coup in France in 1890 that almost succeeded. Elections in several European settings also produced declines in the suicide rate.

This finding has been replicated in the United States. I provide a list of such studies below. The studies in the bibliography are straightforward comparisons between the suicide rates of election months and the suicide rates of the months afterwards. Some also compare the suicide rates of election months with the same months in non-election years. These are simple common-sense comparisons that show lower suicide rates while national elections are in progress. There exists a set of fancier studies that claim that no election suicide relationship exists. I don’t give a lot of credibility to the fancier studies. One approach is to flood the equations with relatively meaningless year and month dummies. In small datasets, flooding the equation with too many variables will make all the relationships look bad – including the valid ones. (Statisticians refer to this problem as data attrition). Another questionable strategy for drowning the election effect is to add variables such as the unemployment rate to the equation which themselves have ambiguous relationships to suicide. In general, Durkheim’s arguments have been supported. Suicide rates go down after elections and go up afterwards.

Why do suicide rates go down during elections and go up afterwards?

Three reasons – one trivial and two profound.

The trivial reason: elections – and political crises in general – are interesting. Everyone wants to know how they are going to come out. Someone who would be mooning and moping and obsessing about their problems is pulled out of their self-absorption by really interesting events going on around them. Who is going to win? Trump or Kamala? How did Kamala do in the Big Debate? Donald Trump just said WHAT on national television? The constant spectacle of fast breaking events keeps everyone entertained. You would get a similar effect from a big event in the sports world. One’s home team being in a pennant race and then going into the playoffs will keep a person watching TV and getting the sports stories from the Internet.

The first profound reason is that during the election, people have a reason to live. There is a fight on between good and evil – and one’s personal efforts are required to defeat evil. This obviously is more effective for people who are active and involved in the campaign. Some very depressed people will not be engaged by the election at all. However, even people who are only marginally involved in politics may know that it is important to at least vote to keep the bad guy or the bad lady out of power. They need to stay alive at least until the First Tuesday of November – or at least until they cast their absentee ballot. People more involved in the campaign may actually have responsibilities. These do not necessarily mean formal work for one of the parties, knocking on doors or hosting fundraisers – although knocking on doors or hosting fundraisers will prevent people from obsessing in their room. Often political campaigns mean it is important to argue with people and get the people with wrong-headed ideas to change their mind. Democrats arm twist wavering Republicans. Republicans arm twist wavering Democrats. People do this on their own initiative, whether or not they have an official role at campaign headquarters.

The second profound reason that suicides go down during electoral campaigns is that the coalescence of political camps pulls people out of isolation and gets them interacting with other people on their team. They now have a moral obligation to members of that team to see that the evil candidate does not win. When political organizers “get out the vote”, they are contacting everyone they know who they think would be potential allies. This not only means contacting popular people who would be active in social life anyway; it involves contacting loners who might be viewed as being a reliable vote. Elections mean an intensification of social interaction as the partisans of both sides build up their teams. Such political organizing breaks isolates out of their social cells. It furthermore encourages the isolates. Lonely people who think they might not have much to offer the world – are told that their vote and their help really matters. More so, they are told that they are reasonable good people, who are a contrast with the unreasonable bad people. As good people, they are told that their efforts to insure that the right candidate wins would be a meaningful and important contribution that would be appreciated by other people of decent moral standards and good judgment.

A lonely suicidal person might think that their life does not matter and they have nothing to contribute to the world. Suddenly, lots of people are telling them that they are important, that they are reasonable and that they are intellectually and morally superior to many of the other people around them. They furthermore have a mission that is really important. They need to do what they can to make sure that justice triumphs now.

*  *  *

After the election, all this goes away. The deed is done. Either the right candidate won or the right candidate lost. There is no more suspense or exciting developments in the nightly news. There is nothing more to watch because we know what happened. There are no jobs that need to be done. Everything is being taken care of. Plus no one is coming to the door or calling people up any more. If a depressed person wanted to lie in bed all day, not showering, not eating and playing with dangerous toys, there is no one else in the world who knows this is going on, and no one else to serve as a circuit breaker – interrupting self-absorbed trains of thought and turning the discussion to outside issues.

The new isolation affects partisans of the winning and losing sides alike. To be sure, members of the losing side may be particularly discouraged. If the losers were feeling helpless before the election, they surely must be feeling more discouraged now. But the emptiness of life after the election also affects people on the winning side as well. The triumphant celebrations on Election Night turn into mornings-after where the same old life continues with the same old dreariness.

Should we intentionally create political crises to reduce the suicide rate? This is not exactly a realistic or feasible solution. But Durkheim does argue that having a moral purpose in life prevents suicide. Mothers with young children to care for have lower suicide rates than do empty-nesters. Having a strong religion reduces suicide. Being emmeshed in a circle of friends with obligations to all of them reduces suicide. Life seems purposeless when life IS purposeless. Leisure, freedom and just hanging out do not give people a reason to live.

Having a moral cause to advance is a great defense against suicide. Finding other people to join your cause and work with you as a team protects them against suicide. There are few things more impressive and wonderful than an army of people coming together to make a common cause.

The best campaigns for human improvement do not end after the First Tuesday of November.